Re: Predict Wind

Alan Leslie

As Bill says, you have to remember that this data GFS PWG ECMWF PWE is all theoretical. Models are just that they are not forecasts....they are algorithm generated numerical models
A good forecaster looks at the models but makes assessments based on many other factors to provide a forecast.
GRIB files (which is what these are) can give you an "idea" of what might be happening in the near future.
In my experience even when they all agree, this data is only valid for about 3-4 days.
In the Pacific the models are notoriously inaccurate especially around land forms, isolated islands etc. 
Predict Wind claim that their enhanced models take this into account, but in my experience other than when there is a steady trade wind flow, they're not that accurate.
...The wind speeds are frequently underestimated by PWG and overestimated by PWE in my locale. About the only thing you can almost depend on is the direction...but close to landforms that not always true either....We have seen PWE and PWG give completely different wind directions at the same time.
Even the top forecasters don;t always get it right.
BUT in terms of cyclones / hurricanes, as Bill says, the models just can't deal with those highly concentrated weather events.
One needs to look at all the available information, models, weather charts, forecasts ( from forecasters...not buoy weather etc) and try to decide what is most likely and make plans on that.
One of things that happens with all this scrutiny here in the S Pacific when heading S ahead of the cyclone season is what they call "Analysis Paralysis" much information and conflicting data that no-one does anything !
We look for what's mostly likely suitable weather and then get what you get and you should be able to deal with it....hurricanes aside.....

Elyse SM437

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